Profile Major Works Resources

Thomas J. Sargent, 1943-

Photo of T.Sargent

New Classical macroeconomist.  Thomas Sargent took a leading part in the "Rational Expectations" revolution of the 1970s. 

Obtaining his B.A. at Berkeley and his Ph.D. Harvard,  Thomas Sargent became joined the faculty at the University of Minnesota in 1971, where he composed most of his path-breaking articles, often in collaboration with Neil Wallace

Sargent subsequently moved to the University of Chicago in 1992, then Stanford in 1998, and finally NYU in 2002.

Sargent won the Nobel Memorial Prize in 2011, together with Christopher Sims,  "for their empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy".



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Major Works of Thomas J. Sargent

  • "A Note on the Accelerationist Controversy", 1971, JMCB
  • "Expectations at the Short End of the Yield Curve", 1971, in Guttentag, editor, Essays on Interest Rates
  • "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest and the Natural Rate of Unemployment", 1973, BPEA.
  • "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight", with N. Wallace 1973, Econometrica
  • "Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation", with N. Wallace, 1973, IER
  • ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument and the Optimal Money Supply Rule", with N. Wallace, 1975, JPE.
  • "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy", with N. Wallace, 1976, JME.[pdf]
  • "A Classical Macroeconomic Model for the United States", 1976, JPE.
  • "The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics", 1976, JPE.
  • "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflation under Rational Expectations", 1977, IER
  • "Is Keynesian Economics a Dead End?", 1977 [draft, sgt]
  • "Business Cycle Models without Pretending to Have Too Much A Priori Theory", with C. Sims, 1977, FRB Minneapolis [sgt]
  • "Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity and Consumption", 1978, JPE
  • "Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations", 1978, JPE.
  • "`New' Explanations of the Persistence of Inflation and Unemployment", with R.E. Lucas, 1978, in After the Phillips Curve.
  • "After Keynesian Macroeconomics" with R.E. Lucas, 1978, in After the Phillips Curve. [pdf]
  • Macroeconomic Theory, 1979.
  • "A Note on the Estimation of the Rational Expectations Model of the Term Structure", 1979, JME
  • "Tobin's q and the Rate of Investment in General Equilibrium", 1980, CROCH
  • "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic", with N. Wallace, 1981, FRB Minneapolis QR
  • "The Real Bills Doctrine vs the Quantity Theory: A reconsideration", with N. Wallace, 1982, JPE.
  • "A Model of Commodity Money", with N. Wallace, 1983, JME.
  • "The Ends of Four Big Inflations", 1983, in Hall, editor, Inflation: Causes and effects
  • "Aggregation Over Time and the Inverse Optimal Predictor Problem for Adaptive Expectations in Continuous Time", with L.P. Hansen, 1983, IER
  • "Business Cycle Analysis with Unobservable Index Models and the Methods of the NBER", with R.B. Litterman and D. Quah, 1984 [draft, sgt]
  • "Interest on Reserves", with N. Wallace, 1985, JME
  • Rational Expectations and Inflation, 1986.
  • "Irrelevance of Open Market Operations in Some Economies with Government Currency Being Dominated in Rate of Return", with B.D. Smith, 1987, AER
  • Dynamic Macroeconomic Theory, 1987.
  • "Some of Milton Friedman's Scientific Contributions to Macroeconomics", 1987, Hoover Inst.[sgt]
  • "Convergence of Least Squares Learning Mechanisms in Self Referential Linear Stochastic Models", with A. Marcet, 1989, JET
  • "Convergence of Least Squares Learning in Environments with Hidden State Variables and Private Information", with A. Marcet, 1989, JET
  • "Convergence of Least Squares Learning and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation", with A. Marcet, 1989, in Barnett et al., editors, Economic Complexity
  • "Convergence of Least Squares Learning Mechanisms in Self Referential Linear Stochastic Models", 1989,
  • "Equilibrium with Signal Extraction from Endogenous Variables", 1991, JEDC
  • "The Convergence of Vector Autoregressions to Rational Expectations Equilibrium", with A. Marcet, 1992 in Vercelli and Dimitri, editors, Macroeconomics: A strategic survey
  • "Speed of Convergence of Recursive Least Squares Learning with ARMA Perceptions", 1993, in Kirman and Salmon, editors, Learning and Rationality in Economics
  • "On the Preservation of Deterministic Cycles when Some Agents Perceive them to be Deterministic", with G. Evans and S. Honkopohja, 1993, JEDC
  • Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics, 1993.
  • "Seasonality and Approximation Errors in Rational Expectations Models", with L.P. Hansen, 1993, J of Econometrics
  • "Coinage, Debasement and Gresham's Laws", with B.D. Smith.
  • "Expectations and the Nonneutrality of Lucas"
  • Recursive Macroeconomics, with L. Ljungqvist, 1995.
  • Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies with L.P. Hansen, 1997.
  • "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Linear Stochastic Model" with F. Velde, 1998 [draft, sgt]
  • The Big Problem of Small Change, with F. Velde, 2002
  • "Harrod, 1939", with L. Blume, 2009 [draft, sgt]
  • "Questioning Carlo Cipolla", with Robert M. Townsend, 2009 [draft, sgt]
  • "United States Then, Europe Now", 2011 [nobel]
  • "Robert E. Lucas's Collected Papers".2014 [draft sgt]
  • "Points of Departure", 2015 [draft, sgt]




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Resources on Thomas Sargent

  • Thomas Sargent's personal homepage
  • Thomas Sargent's faculty page at NYU
  • Thomas Sargent fellow page at Hoover Institution.
  • Thomas Sargent fellow page at Becker-Friedman Institute at Chicago
  • Nobel Memorial Prize 2011 page: facts, autobiography, lecture
  • "Quantitative Economics" lectures, with John Stachurski [website]
  • Sargent 2010 interview at Region, FRB Minneapolis
  • Sargent 1989 interview at Region, FRB Minneapolis,
  • Review of Sargent's 1997 ed of  Rational Expectations and Inflation, at Region, FRB Minneapolis [online]
  • Sargent entry at Concise Encycl of Economics, LibertyFund
  • "Review of Esther-Mirjam Sent, The Evolving Rationality of Rational Expectations: An Assessment of Thomas Sargent's Achievements" by E.R. Weintraub, 2000, HOPE
  • Sargent at Econ-Journal Watch (pdf)
  • "A Nobel for Tom Sargent" at Reason mag [online]
  • Sargent's brief commencement speech (at Marginal Revolution blog) (comment by Unease Money blog)
  • Wikipedia


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